Womens college basketball 20 for 20: Paige Bueckers, Niele Ivey and a big-time donor

Twenty years ago, UConn and Tennessee were on a collision course to meet in the 2003 national championship game, yet another epic matchup between Geno Auriemma and Pat Summitt that would go down in the books as the Huskies capped its nearly perfect season by winning their third national championship in four years. Diana Taurasi poured in 28 points in the final game of Kara Lawson’s career.

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ESPN made a gamble that year, moving the game to a Sunday (from its previous Friday) to see if that might increase viewership. It did — a 26 percent increase in viewership.

In 2003, a young player-coach named Dawn Staley was in her third year at Temple, working her way through a losing season. Kim Mulkey was two seasons away from her first national championship, dancing in the WNIT with her Baylor team. Tara VanDerveer’s Stanford team had run its way through the Pac-10 but exited early from the NCAA Tournament.

Twenty years later, all those people are still relevant in women’s basketball, having already impacted the game in their own ways. For some, a lot has changed; for others, not as much. Taurasi is still dropping 28 points and leading her (WNBA) team, while Lawson is leading Duke as its head coach after a stint coaching in the NBA. Staley is in the hunt for her third national title, potentially headed toward another epic matchup with Auriemma. Or maybe it’ll be against VanDerveer and her same, steady Stanford team. Or perhaps Mulkey, who traded her green and gold sequins for purple and gold sequins at LSU.

Regardless of which teams end up in the title game, the sport — in just its third season airing every NCAA Tournament game — will likely see an increase in March viewership, keeping with the trend of recent years.

The women’s basketball world is small, so while those familiar names have helped build the sport into what it is today over the last two decades, it appears as though the game is at an inflection point.

Twenty years ago, no one would have predicted an NIL world in which athletes were making $1 million-plus a year. No one would’ve guessed viewers would be able to watch the national championship game on their phones, tablet or a fridge. And no one would’ve seen a reckoning coming to the sport, prompted by a 30-second video shot on a student-athlete’s phone and posted to social media.

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The next 20 years will see massive change to the sport, as some of the most famous names ultimately retire, leaving space for younger coaches and others to take the mantle for women’s basketball growth.

This list is an attempt to look at people who have a chance to bring the most change to women’s basketball in the next 20 years — stakeholders, coaches, players, former players. Some who are new to the game (or college sports) and others who’ve been around awhile. Names you know, some you don’t. Their push for change could come quickly or be the end point of a journey led by dozens of trailblazers over the last 50 years.

Presented in alphabetical order, these are 20 people who have a chance to greatly influence how the women’s basketball game is played, perceived and run over the next 20 years.

1. Charlie Baker, incoming NCAA president

Baker won’t have to do much to be more well-liked by the women’s basketball community than his predecessor, but there are a few moves he could make that would drastically change the landscape of the sport. Decisions regarding the transfer portal, collectives and NIL will impact every sport, but if he wishes to avoid the same missteps of Mark Emmert, one move could give him more immediate visibility into women’s college hoops. Currently, Lynn Holzman — vice president for NCAA women’s basketball — reports to Dan Gavitt, senior vice president of NCAA basketball. While the NCAA has split the men’s and women’s tournaments in terms of media rights and planning, the women’s tournament director still reports to the men’s tournament director, instead of Baker directly (as Gavitt does). Establishing a direct report between these two, as the sport rapidly changes, could help Baker navigate the future, avoid the stumbling blocks and put the sport on equal footing with men’s college basketball.

2/3. David Benedict, UConn AD, and Bernard Muir, Stanford AD

For decades, the East and West coasts have had their established women’s basketball powers, built and sustained by Auriemma and VanDerveer. But the game’s two winningest coaches have fewer games ahead of them than behind, and when they retire, it’ll mark an unprecedented time in the sport for most modern fans — after all, what is women’s college basketball without Tara, 69, and Geno, 68? The responsibility to hire replacements for these two giants will fall on Benedict and Muir. These are the kinds of decisions that could both define their careers and the sport for years to come.

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In many ways, Bueckers already has changed the next 20 years of women’s college basketball by being the ultra-successful guinea pig of NIL. Even with missing as many games as she has over the last two seasons, she’s still racking in endorsement deals and her celebrity extends far beyond women’s college hoops. Decades from now, when the impacts of NIL are known and better understood, Bueckers will be a patient zero of sorts — one several athletes in the coming years will attempt to emulate.

5. Andraya Carter, ESPN analyst

Much in the way that Holly Rowe and Rebecca Lobo have led the television growth of women’s college hoops over the last 20 years, Carter, 29, seems poised to do the same in the next 20. The former Tennessee product is a natural in the studio and on the sideline for ESPN in multiple sports, but when it comes to women’s college basketball, her insightful commentary and astute observations make the game more enjoyable to watch and will do so for years to come.

6. Nick Dawson, ESPN Vice President Programming & Acquisitions

ESPN has been the main broadcaster of women’s basketball over the past 30 years, but as fans consume media in different ways, the worldwide leader will need to continue to evolve to stay current with women’s hoops fans. As VP of programming and acquisitions, it’ll be Dawson’s job to keep ESPN at the center of the conversation. But he also will be leading this charge at a time when the landscape of women’s basketball will be changing. Which programs will be booked in prime slots? Which matchups will be featured on GameDay? How will ESPN focus on new teams in the next 20 years? These are all questions Dawson will need to answer.

7. Marie Donoghue, Amazon VP Global Sports Video

She led the charge in getting WNBA games onto the streaming service for the 2021 season, and many expect Amazon to be the first major streaming platform to do the same when it comes to women’s college hoops. Expanding the game into streaming allows the sport to reach a younger audience on more devices, avoid scheduling restrictions and expand to international audiences.

8. Danielle Donohew, WBCA executive director

Selected as the executive director in 2014, Donohew is the common thread among women’s basketball coaches from the NCAA to the WNBA to Team USA. After the inequities between the men’s and women’s 2021 tournament bubbles were exposed, the WBCA, led by Donohew, launched the “Our Fair Shot” initiative, which has continued to put pressure on the NCAA and college sports stakeholders to push for improvements in women’s basketball. Moving forward, as a possible decision looms for a potential partnership between the WBCA and the NABC — a shift that would give women’s basketball even more leverage by aligning with men’s basketball coaches — it would be Donohew tasked with leading the efforts.

9. Donor X, university collective

Collectives are going to have an outsized opportunity to influence women’s college basketball over the next two seasons (while women’s players decide whether to use their COVID-19 bonus year) and in the future if the WNBA’s age minimum every goes away (and WNBA rookie salaries don’t go up). Because while a collective might have a hard time putting together money to compete with the No. 1 pick’s salary in the NBA (about $11 million in 2022) or the NFL ($6.8 million), they’d have no issues doubling or tripling the No. 1 pick’s salary in the WNBA (just over $72,000). And if women’s college basketball continues to become more valuable and women’s college players continue to grow their personal brands, collectives will see the opportunity in keeping women’s college players in the college game longer.

10. Cathy Engelbert, WNBA commissioner

As it stands, there are only a handful of spots in the WNBA every season for rookies. Sometimes, lottery picks are off rosters a month into the season. But when Engelbert — a former Deloitte executive — took the reins of the WNBA in 2019, she was very clear about her vision to put the league through a financial transformation, and with that influx of cash comes the expectation of expansion. Engelbert told The Athletic in 2022 that she had hoped to name expansion cities by the end of that calendar year, but the locations remain unknown. However, expansion is coming and when it does (and expect more than one round over the next two decades) the opportunities for college players at the next level will expand dramatically.

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11. Liz Friedman, Nike women’s basketball sports marketing director

With the largest US market share in athletic footwear, Nike is in the driver’s seat of brand partnerships for athletes. And when it comes to NIL deals, the same is true. The company already has NIL deals with Stanford guard Haley Jones, Iowa guard Caitlin Clark and future USC guard Juju Watkins. Friedman, who has been with Nike since 2016, has been behind these partnerships and her leadership will be key as the company looks to expand its NIL deals with women’s basketball players at the high school and college levels.

12. Dan Gavitt, NCAA SVP of Basketball

Currently, the women’s NCAA Tournament is packaged with 28 other NCAA championships in terms of its media rights deal — all sold to ESPN in 2011 in a multi-year deal that costs the network just $34 million per year. But that deal comes up in 2024 and it will be Gavitt negotiating a new media rights deal for the NCAA. In the Kaplan Report, Ed Desser estimated that the women’s tournament alone would be worth somewhere between $81 and $112 million a year beginning in 2025. If Gavitt negotiates a television deal somewhere in that range for the women’s NCAA Tournament, it will be a game changer financially and perception-wise for women’s college basketball within the NCAA.

13. Niele Ivey, Notre Dame coach

Twenty years ago, VanDerveer and Auriemma were leading programs that had won a few national titles and been regulars in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. Notre Dame isn’t completely unlike those programs, and while Ivey hasn’t been the sole architect of Notre Dame in the way VanDerveer and Auriemma have been at Stanford and UConn, Ivey has the potential to lead this storied program into the next iteration of its legacy. At 45 and at the helm of one of the most recognizable brands in women’s college hoops, she has an opportunity to influence the game and build the sport in the next two decades.

14. Megan Kahn, Big Ten women’s basketball executive

The Big Ten has become one of the strongest power conferences in the country, but with UCLA and USC coming into the fold in 2024, it has a chance to become the undisputed best and deepest. Former Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren recognized the growth in popularity of women’s basketball, and in 2021 hired Kahn to help usher in this expansion era which now puts the Big Ten in the three largest media markets coast-to-coast. As the conference expands its footprint, expect Kahn to drive decisions involving streaming, scheduling and brand promotion as the soon-to-be 16-team Big Ten tries to meet a younger women’s basketball audience in a digital space.

15. NCAA Board of Governors

For each appearance in the men’s NCAA Tournament, teams earn a “unit” for their respective conference that is paid out by the NCAA over the course of six years. Looking at the 2022 tournament, this means that Big 12 teams earned their conference a whopping $34.3 million while Big East teams earned their conference $26.3 million. But there are no payouts for the women’s teams, so while a No. 16 seed in the men’s tournament earns its conference six figures, South Carolina didn’t earn a cent from the NCAA in payouts for its national title.

When it comes to equity between the men’s and women’s tournaments, this payout structure is often the first point brought up by women’s basketball coaches. But in order to change this payment structure, the NCAA Board of Governors would need to vote to do so. If the women’s tournament is packaged alone in a television rights deal, the new revenue and increased visibility (which brings more revenue) could be enough to force a vote on a payout structure for the women’s game, revolutionizing the sport.

With so few spots available for rookies in the WNBA, any move the league makes has a major impact on college hoops. But there’s one change the WNBA could make that would alter women’s college basketball forever: Change the eligibility rules. Currently, in order to be WNBA Draft eligible, college players need to either a) graduate from college or b) turn 22 during the draft year. Whereas in the NBA, players need to be just 19 and one year removed from high school. In the NWSL, players need to be 18 by Jan. 1 of their first season.

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Why would eligibility be a priority for the current players’ association? One way the player’s association could put pressure on the WNBA to increase salaries at all levels (but especially rookie-scale contracts) would be to negotiate the draft eligibility rules so younger players could enter the draft, ultimately pitting collectives against the WNBA rookie salaries earlier. The WNBPA can opt out of the CBA in 2024; could we see this on the table in negotiations in 2025 as a leveraging tool for the W players and in a move toward greater equity among the pro leagues?

17. Dawn Staley, South Carolina coach

It took Staley four seasons to turn South Carolina from a dud of a program into the class of the SEC, and another five seasons to become the national champs. At 52, she’s no longer a young up-and-comer on the women’s basketball scene, but in a seemingly short amount of time, she has already built up a program that rivals the dynasties built at Connecticut and Stanford. With impending retirements from Auriemma and VanDerveer, Staley and South Carolina feel like the next big giant in the sport that can persist over the next decade (at least). While her impact on the court has been felt, and will be felt for many years to come, her impact off the court has changed the game, too. Between using her voice to hold those in power, both in sport and social justice, to account, as well as her public fight for equal pay at South Carolina and her desire to pave a way for every Black head coach in the game, Staley has become a mentor for many in the game.

18. Carol Stiff, sports media consultant

For 30 years at ESPN, Stiff was the lead driver for women’s basketball as the network expanded its NCAA Tournament television coverage from just 24 games in 1996 to all 63 games in 2021. She left the network in July 2021 and founded her own consulting firm — Stiff Sports Media Consulting — where she has continued to work with several companies involved in women’s college hoops. Given her extensive knowledge of the sport, her connections with those in it and her appreciation of the landscape, it’s fair to assume that when companies are making moves in women’s college basketball — in everything from broadcasting to streaming to betting — she’s one of their first calls.

19. Juju Watkins, USC signee

Watkins made history by becoming the first high school girls’ basketball player to sign an NIL deal with Nike, but she also made history by breaking from precedent. In the last 17 years, three-quarters of all the top recruits in the country ended up at UConn or Stanford. Three players who didn’t end up with the Huskies or Cardinal went to Baylor or Tennessee — programs that had won at least one national title in the decade before they signed. Then, there is A’ja Wilson, who chose South Carolina in 2014, and Watkins, who chose USC in 2023. Like Wilson, Watkins decided to stay and play in her home state, a trend that some coaches think we might see more of as a “post-pandemic” reflection, but as recruiting changes — due to pandemic-influenced trends, NIL deals, retiring coaches — Watkins might be a harbinger of what is to come in the next 20 years: top players landing outside of Storrs and Palo Alto.

20. Erica Williamson, FastModel Director of Product and Marketing

Advanced stats and analytics are areas that could see exponential growth in the next 20 years. No company currently has a major foothold in women’s college basketball, but FastModel could be one that makes big moves. Williamson, a former Notre Dame player (2006-10) and staffer, is trying to involve deeper analytics in the women’s game and educate women’s basketball coaches about the usefulness of statistics and analytics in coaching and scouting. FastModel’s product is already used by the two most recent national champions, South Carolina and Stanford, as well as Team USA and one-third of the WNBA (Aces, Sky, Mystics and Storm).

(Illustration: Eamonn Dalton / The Athletic; Photos of Paige Bueckers, Niele Ivey and Dawn Staley: Jacob Kupferman, Erica Denhoff, Michael Hickey / Getty Images)

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